Is the Portland Housing Market Going to Crash in 2025? Here’s How Buyers & Sellers Can Win

The real estate market is shifting, and the big question is: Will the Portland housing market crash in 2025? While some fear a downturn, this episode breaks down why we’re not seeing another 2008 and, more importantly, how buyers and sellers can navigate today’s market to their advantage. If you’re wondering whether now is the time to buy, sell, or wait it out—this is the episode for you!

Episode Highlights:

🏡 Why Home Prices Aren’t Crashing – The market is stabilizing, not collapsing. Learn why supply and demand are still keeping prices strong in many areas.

📉 How High Mortgage Rates Create Buying Opportunities – Interest rates may be higher, but fewer bidding wars and increased seller concessions mean buyers can negotiate better deals than before.

📊 How Sellers Can Still Win in 2025 – Pricing your home right is key, but staging, marketing, and understanding buyer psychology can help you sell faster and for more.

💰 Builder Incentives & New Construction Discounts – Homebuilders are offering rate buy-downs, price reductions, and closing cost credits to move inventory. Find out how to take advantage of these deals.

🔄 Refinance Later, Buy Now – If you’re worried about high rates, learn why many smart buyers are locking in homes now and planning to refinance when rates drop.

🏠 Why Foreclosures Aren’t a Threat – Unlike 2008, most homeowners have strong equity positions and options to sell before facing distress. That means no flood of foreclosures.

📈 Rent vs. Buy: What the Numbers Say – With rents continuing to rise, we break down the math on why homeownership can still be the smarter long-term play.

💡 Understanding Buyer & Seller Psychology – How the current market conditions are shaping decisions and why smart strategies can help you stay ahead.

📢 Top Negotiation Strategies for 2025 – Whether you're buying or selling, we cover the best ways to secure a great deal in today's market.

Key Takeaways & Action Steps:

✅ Buyers: Negotiate smartly! With more homes on the market and sellers offering concessions, this could be your best time to buy before demand picks up again.

 ✅ Sellers: Don’t overprice! Homes that are well-presented and competitively priced are still selling fast—get expert guidance on your pricing strategy. 

✅ Investors: Keep an eye on builder incentives! Developers are looking to move inventory, which means deals are out there for those who know where to look. 

✅ Everyone: Stay informed. The market is always changing, and the best way to succeed is to work with experienced professionals who can help you strategize.

Thank you for listening to this episode. Stay up to date on the latest trends and insights by subscribing to our podcast and following us on social media.

For more information about buying or selling in the Portland Metro real estate market, please visit www.LivPortland.com or contact us directly.

We appreciate your feedback, so please leave a review and let us know what topics you would like to hear more about.

Transcript

00;00;08;06 - 00;00;21;11

Joe Reitzug

Welcome to off the record Talking real estate with Joe and Makayla. If you're interested in the Portland, Oregon real estate market and want the unvarnished inside scoop, you've come to the right place. Thanks for giving us a listen.

00;00;21;11 - 00;00;25;28

Joe Reitzug

Okay, everyone, welcome to the show. Hi, Makayla.

00;00;26;01 - 00;00;27;25

Makayla Mast

Hi. How are you? Oh.

00;00;27;25 - 00;00;30;12

Joe Reitzug

I'm good. I'm really good.

00;00;30;15 - 00;00;32;20

Makayla Mast

We're a little punchy today.

00;00;32;22 - 00;00;33;27

Joe Reitzug

Yes. We are.

00;00;33;27 - 00;00;38;06

Joe Reitzug

We had scheduled to start doing our pod about two hours ago.

00;00;38;29 - 00;00;42;16

Joe Reitzug

And life and business and all sorts of crazy stuff got in the way.

00;00;42;18 - 00;00;47;24

Makayla Mast

also, we've been spending the better part of the last 30 minutes debating on what we want to talk about.

00;00;47;24 - 00;00;51;15

Makayla Mast

So we decided to just turn the mics on and see what happens.

00;00;51;15 - 00;00;53;26

Joe Reitzug

So we're leading with and you probably saw

00;00;53;26 - 00;00;57;29

Joe Reitzug

the title and thought, I'm going to see what they have to say about this, but

00;00;57;29 - 00;01;00;27

Joe Reitzug

Is the housing market going to crash?

00;01;01;00 - 00;01;01;18

Makayla Mast

No.

00;01;01;23 - 00;01;14;28

Joe Reitzug

I say no, but Makayla wanted to say why we don't think the housing market's going to crash. And I don't think it's going to crash, but I think there could be bumpy waters for all of us.

00;01;14;28 - 00;01;15;24

Joe Reitzug

It's worth debating.

00;01;16;00 - 00;01;18;07

Makayla Mast

It's worth debating. Okay. Yeah.

00;01;18;09 - 00;01;20;03

Joe Reitzug

So we're going to get into that

00;01;20;03 - 00;01;21;03

Joe Reitzug

talk about,

00;01;21;03 - 00;01;28;29

Joe Reitzug

what? Some of the fears are out there. We've been ChatGPT and people. We've been riding the AI wave,

00;01;28;29 - 00;01;37;09

Joe Reitzug

actually, what was cool was the highest read articles online. We pulled those when it came to real estate and what's going on.

00;01;37;09 - 00;01;47;03

Joe Reitzug

And so it's kind of interesting. You can kind of see what what people are looking at. There was a JP, JP Morgan article about what they thought, and.

00;01;47;05 - 00;01;53;03

Makayla Mast

There's been a lot of really great articles that have come out this week. So there's been a lot to digest.

00;01;53;05 - 00;02;12;24

Joe Reitzug

And as always, there's lots of, you know, just crazy stuff going on in real estate. One of them was us. Real estate firm CoStar prepares $1.7 billion bid for Australia's domain. What's domain, you ask? No one knows, but they're paying 1.7 billion for it.

00;02;12;27 - 00;02;24;29

Makayla Mast

I think I think domain is like, oh, geez, you know what domain is? You're just going to let me try to say what I think it is?

00;02;25;01 - 00;02;26;24

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. It's

00;02;26;27 - 00;02;28;00

Makayla Mast

It's basically.

00;02;28;07 - 00;02;31;10

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, it's like they're online. Yeah. They're Zillow.

00;02;31;12 - 00;02;32;12

Makayla Mast

Okay.

00;02;32;14 - 00;02;56;05

Joe Reitzug

Australian property classifieds firm is what it officially is, but who knows? I have not been to Australia. You? No, no, I might go there just for domain. CoStar though. Holy smokes. Those guys are spending money. They are home scum who we've recently talked to about different things and a ton of other,

00;02;56;07 - 00;03;03;12

Makayla Mast

Who rent just ran a $6 million Super Bowl ad. Yeah, and now they're trying to take over Australia.

00;03;03;15 - 00;03;25;04

Joe Reitzug

Good luck to them. Those losses are tough. So anyways we we're talking about what's going on in the marketplace. And you know you clicked on here because we said is the market going to crash. And you know there's a lot of fear out there about a market crash. But today we're breaking down why we feel the way we do.

00;03;25;05 - 00;03;25;18

Makayla Mast

Yeah.

00;03;25;18 - 00;03;36;29

Makayla Mast

Joe has been through. I feel like this should be a good caveat right? Maybe Joe has been through a lot of different types of markets, one of them being 2007, 2008.

00;03;37;02 - 00;03;41;15

Joe Reitzug

That is a new and refreshing way. On saying I'm all, but I appreciate that.

00;03;41;16 - 00;03;43;29

Makayla Mast

You're welcome. Yeah, I'm trying to think in new ways.

00;03;44;01 - 00;04;05;29

Joe Reitzug

Yep. I have been through a lot and you know, real estate's been through all sorts of different cycles over, over the different years and stuff. But you know, 2008 to 2010 was no joke. It was a rough and last two, two and a half years that we're going through right now. We've also been.

00;04;06;01 - 00;04;06;17

Makayla Mast

Pretty rough.

00;04;06;24 - 00;04;14;23

Joe Reitzug

Pretty rough. But it's kind of been this like death by a thousand, you know, stabs type of thing. You know, it's like.

00;04;14;26 - 00;04;15;24

Makayla Mast

Long and.

00;04;15;26 - 00;04;32;25

Joe Reitzug

Than that. And, you know, the numbers are going down slowly. So as far as sales and inventory and this and that and the other, and all of a sudden, you know, it's just a little bit worse every month. And all of a sudden you look at it and it's like, oh, 50% down. And that's that's rough. But what does it all mean?

00;04;32;25 - 00;04;34;22

Joe Reitzug

Because that's why you guys tuned in.

00;04;35;16 - 00;04;44;26

Joe Reitzug

So you know there are a you know when we did the ChatGPT of what people are looking at right now, we looked at most viewed pieces of real estate news this week.

00;04;44;26 - 00;04;50;00

Joe Reitzug

is the economy going to crash and take down the housing market as well?

00;04;50;06 - 00;04;52;16

Joe Reitzug

Seems to be a hot topic right now.

00;04;52;17 - 00;05;14;13

Makayla Mast

Makayla, I spent most of my day on the interwebs reading very scary things, but a lot of them from very untrusted sources, people just, you know, using it as clickbait, particularly this man in a tank top on YouTube screaming into the camera about why the market's going to crash.

00;05;14;15 - 00;05;17;02

Joe Reitzug

And I was like, market our general economy market.

00;05;17;04 - 00;05;19;11

Makayla Mast

Thank you for making me clarify the housing market.

00;05;19;11 - 00;05;38;03

Joe Reitzug

Oh, okay. I did not see that one, but I woke up and had coffee this morning with my two older sons, and they shared with me the fact that, wow, the internet saying that the economy is going to go sideways, dad, and also the housing economy. How do you feel about that? I'm like, wait, what?

00;05;38;10 - 00;05;40;08

Makayla Mast

You're like, let me finish my coffee.

00;05;40;11 - 00;05;42;10

Joe Reitzug

Let me get to the bottom of my coffee cup.

00;05;42;12 - 00;05;44;05

Makayla Mast

And then we'll go through this crisis.

00;05;44;06 - 00;05;48;08

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So anyways, it's out there and it's a it's a big thing.

00;05;48;08 - 00;06;03;02

Joe Reitzug

why people fear crash is obvious. It would be horrendous. 2008 2010 was really, really nasty. The 1980s had a stretch that were really, really nasty and it's difficult.

00;06;03;02 - 00;06;09;01

Joe Reitzug

in 2008 to 2010 a lot of people lost their jobs. A lot of people lost their homes.

00;06;09;19 - 00;06;18;16

Joe Reitzug

Foreclosure was crazy. And it was a horrible, horrible time for a lot of people and a horrible time for the industry.

00;06;18;16 - 00;06;19;11

Joe Reitzug

you could still

00;06;19;11 - 00;06;21;04

Joe Reitzug

buy, you could still sell.

00;06;21;04 - 00;06;36;02

Joe Reitzug

And sometimes people did extremely well because there's always opportunity and any marketplace. But in general it was awful. So whenever we start having these conversations about things going horribly wrong and going south, it perks people's ears up.

00;06;36;04 - 00;06;40;03

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. You know, so we're going to give you our $0.02 on this.

00;06;40;06 - 00;06;56;18

Makayla Mast

Sounds good. Well, I think the best place to start is comparing our real estate climate now to 2008, 2007, even. And one of the stats that we look at is inventory and inventory is remaining,

00;06;56;18 - 00;07;03;07

Makayla Mast

low, but it's not anywhere near the inventory levels that were in 2008. So that's a good sign.

00;07;03;07 - 00;07;05;08

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, I kind of.

00;07;05;14 - 00;07;05;27

Makayla Mast

Saw.

00;07;05;29 - 00;07;06;04

Joe Reitzug

Sort.

00;07;06;04 - 00;07;09;06

Makayla Mast

Of it's really hard to compare those two.

00;07;09;08 - 00;07;15;06

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, it is hard to compare those two. And sometimes inventory stats are misleading.

00;07;15;26 - 00;07;19;28

Joe Reitzug

But yeah for the most part we're at 3.7 right now. Now locally

00;07;19;28 - 00;07;27;23

Joe Reitzug

six months of inventory is typically where we like to see things nice and balanced. But it's starting to come back a little bit.

00;07;27;23 - 00;07;29;03

Joe Reitzug

But here's the other side of it.

00;07;29;03 - 00;07;36;14

Joe Reitzug

That's a measurement of cycling out of the system, right? How long does it take to burn through the inventory you have right now?

00;07;36;14 - 00;07;42;07

Joe Reitzug

If we didn't put another home on the market, it would take 3.7 months to sell everything we had.

00;07;42;07 - 00;07;43;17

Joe Reitzug

But if sales

00;07;43;17 - 00;07;55;04

Joe Reitzug

are half what they were two years ago. That burn is much slower. So that 3.7 months of inventory, if we had the same burn that we did two years ago,

00;07;55;04 - 00;07;56;13

Joe Reitzug

it would be a much different number.

00;07;56;13 - 00;07;56;21

Joe Reitzug

Right.

00;07;56;22 - 00;07;57;10

Makayla Mast

Right.

00;07;57;13 - 00;08;00;15

Joe Reitzug

So it's kind of you got to give and take with that.

00;08;00;15 - 00;08;03;09

Joe Reitzug

homebuilders are another one, Mark, that I think a lot of people,

00;08;03;09 - 00;08;18;15

Joe Reitzug

don't really understand that dynamic resales great. But a constant influx and flow of new construction is always a good thing for the marketplace. And homebuilders have been under producing for at least a decade now.

00;08;18;17 - 00;08;24;16

Makayla Mast

Crazy because it seems like they're thrown up, houses left and right. But the demand is still so high.

00;08;24;18 - 00;08;32;25

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, they're trying to get there, but it's just not really happening for them. And the other side of it is with sales slowing.

00;08;32;25 - 00;08;41;10

Joe Reitzug

You'll notice that in our marketplaces, builders are the first ones to get super aggressive when it comes to pricing or incentives or bonuses.

00;08;41;12 - 00;08;42;04

Makayla Mast

You gotta get out.

00;08;42;05 - 00;08;43;08

Joe Reitzug

All of you who have,

00;08;43;08 - 00;09;07;01

Joe Reitzug

looked online or googled anything about real estate when you go on to Instagram or or wherever, you're probably getting ads from builders, Toll Brothers, you know, all of them saying, hey, you check out all the new homes we have and we've got all these crazy incentives. They are trying to get that inventory sold because those margins change incredibly with all the different,

00;09;07;01 - 00;09;10;10

Joe Reitzug

interest rate and cost and inflation and all that sort of stuff.

00;09;10;10 - 00;09;12;20

Joe Reitzug

So they're still under the gun.

00;09;12;20 - 00;09;18;16

Joe Reitzug

Demand is still strong, especially in metro areas like Portland. Really?

00;09;18;19 - 00;09;26;23

Makayla Mast

Demand is strong. People want to buy houses. There isn't enough to buy, which is very contradictory.

00;09;26;25 - 00;09;30;04

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, but it's half the demand that we had two years ago.

00;09;30;06 - 00;09;30;29

Makayla Mast

Right?

00;09;31;01 - 00;09;32;13

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So.

00;09;32;15 - 00;09;51;26

Makayla Mast

But people will always need to buy homes, but always need to people. Todd Vantage mortgage Group, Todd Jenison. He always says people will always have babies. People are always going to need to, you know, move up their houses, get bigger, more space. And on the other side of that,

00;09;51;26 - 00;09;54;23

Makayla Mast

people are always going to need to sell for certain reasons as well.

00;09;54;23 - 00;10;02;11

Joe Reitzug

Yes. And we are in a cycle right now where it's a do I really need to sell conversation.

00;10;02;13 - 00;10;03;17

Makayla Mast

Which is hard to buy.

00;10;03;18 - 00;10;08;03

Joe Reitzug

Do I really need to buy or sell. And it comes down to life events.

00;10;08;03 - 00;10;10;11

Joe Reitzug

Life births deaths.

00;10;10;11 - 00;10;15;26

Joe Reitzug

But as far as like I really like that neighborhood or. Wow, we need a little bit more space.

00;10;15;26 - 00;10;20;01

Joe Reitzug

All those people that over the past two years, you know, or more,

00;10;20;01 - 00;10;24;13

Joe Reitzug

I would say going back ten years. Those type of choices aren't happening anymore.

00;10;24;13 - 00;10;39;11

Joe Reitzug

It's more of I got a better job in Boise that's paying me, you know, 40% more than what I'm making here in Hillsboro or Portland. And I got to do that. So, yep, I'm going to sell.

00;10;39;11 - 00;10;41;18

Joe Reitzug

It's a lot of buyers off the table.

00;10;41;18 - 00;10;47;13

Joe Reitzug

Mortgage lending is solid. Unlike 2008. Yeah, that's. I could go with that.

00;10;47;15 - 00;10;47;25

Makayla Mast

Okay.

00;10;47;29 - 00;10;57;15

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, that's. That one. Feels good. Strict lending standards in place since Dodd-Frank. Maybe too strict, maybe too strict. I mean, go ahead and say.

00;10;57;17 - 00;10;59;27

Makayla Mast

It was so hard to get pre-approved by.

00;10;59;27 - 00;11;07;15

Joe Reitzug

Mortgage broker. Friends are like, can we get half as much paperwork? Yeah, that feels awful, I'm sure.

00;11;07;17 - 00;11;10;11

Makayla Mast

But this is good. That's why these rules are in place.

00;11;10;12 - 00;11;20;12

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, and the whole risky subprime loans and all that sort of stuff that is long gone. And, you know, people that have fears about that coming back, that's not happening.

00;11;20;14 - 00;11;31;18

Makayla Mast

So what do you think about when people say that, homeowners today have more equity than ever before? Do they depends on when they bought their house.

00;11;31;20 - 00;11;34;03

Joe Reitzug

Because depends on how often they refi.

00;11;34;05 - 00;11;35;04

Makayla Mast

Right.

00;11;35;04 - 00;11;59;28

Joe Reitzug

the fact that when interest rates were at 3% and a lender says, yeah, sure, we can refinance you from your five, six, 7% mortgage down to three. And look how that's going to change your payment. And oh yeah you could take 50 grand out in equity if and still have 20% down. And how many people said I don't need that extra 50 grand?

00;12;00;02 - 00;12;03;29

Joe Reitzug

Right. So I think that equity number is a little bit,

00;12;03;29 - 00;12;14;08

Joe Reitzug

less than a lot of people think. And there are a lot of people that haven't taken any equity out and have just kind of sat on it. Maybe they refi to the lower number and now they're like sitting really pretty.

00;12;14;27 - 00;12;43;07

Joe Reitzug

So the other dynamic in our marketplace mag is appreciation rates on a $300,000 home. Right. If you get three or if you got 5% for three years you know compound that out. Whatever that number is. If you had $1 million home and we're getting 5% compound that out. So you see the difference. Yeah. Equity. And that's part of where we're at right now.

00;12;43;07 - 00;13;06;03

Joe Reitzug

Is that a lot of luxury home buyers and a lot of buyers and sellers in the million plus million five plus have an exponentially larger number to work with, which makes their job payments. You know, they may be buying bigger. They may not. Right. It's a bigger number. And they have their last interest rate sensitive. Right.

00;13;06;05 - 00;13;10;15

Makayla Mast

Well, that's proven to be true. And what we're seeing in the market right now.

00;13;10;21 - 00;13;11;22

Joe Reitzug

So we're seeing,

00;13;11;22 - 00;13;13;11

Joe Reitzug

luxury market really take off.

00;13;13;11 - 00;13;14;26

Joe Reitzug

it's really outpaced what

00;13;14;26 - 00;13;16;02

Joe Reitzug

the normal market,

00;13;16;02 - 00;13;19;00

Joe Reitzug

is able to do right now. Let's talk about

00;13;19;00 - 00;13;19;25

Joe Reitzug

one of the other three

00;13;19;25 - 00;13;28;23

Joe Reitzug

key reasons the market is maybe crashing, crashing foreclosures and distressed sales. What do you think?

00;13;28;25 - 00;13;33;08

Makayla Mast

Well, there's less foreclosures now than there were in 2007, 2008.

00;13;33;08 - 00;13;40;21

Makayla Mast

hopefully you have enough equity in your house that if you realize that foreclosure might be coming, that you can sell it.

00;13;40;23 - 00;14;04;09

Joe Reitzug

There's a lot more resources, a lot more tools in place for people to get help. And also, the numbers bear out that it's just not an issue right now in our in our marketplace or nationally, even if they're tipping up or ticking up a little bit fractionally. It's still nowhere near what we saw back in 2007, 2008. So I just don't think that's an issue at all.

00;14;04;09 - 00;14;12;09

Joe Reitzug

Interest rates are high, but that's stabilizing the market. Some people say.

00;14;12;12 - 00;14;13;29

Makayla Mast

It's making us insane.

00;14;14;01 - 00;14;21;04

Joe Reitzug

This is making us insane. They say higher rates, slow appreciation, but don't cause crashes.

00;14;21;06 - 00;14;27;13

Makayla Mast

Well, like you said, it's been a slow burn. I mean, that is what has happened.

00;14;27;16 - 00;14;37;00

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. For sure. And, you know, the fact is, a lot of people are saying that rates aren't going to get down below six and a half or six.

00;14;37;00 - 00;14;49;00

Joe Reitzug

Who knows. Right. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were somewhere between 6 and 6 and a half. How much does that help people now when they're seven? Seven and a half?

00;14;49;03 - 00;14;54;10

Joe Reitzug

Certainly better to be down there. But for all those people that are sitting on a two and a half, three and a half,

00;14;54;10 - 00;15;06;03

Joe Reitzug

percent mortgage, looking at a six and a half is not going to be super appealing. So I don't think rates are, you know, this big lever in the whole thing.

00;15;06;06 - 00;15;30;04

Makayla Mast

What do you think about when people talk about buyer psychology and how people are just adjusting to the new normal? Because, you know, people who maybe wanted to buy last year, the year before and they want to, you know, get pre-approved. And they saw the interest rates and they looked at their monthly payment. They probably freaked out and decided they couldn't afford it and then decided to save.

00;15;30;06 - 00;15;34;05

Makayla Mast

So maybe those folks will come into play this year or the year after.

00;15;34;06 - 00;15;49;21

Joe Reitzug

I don't know, I think there's definitely a contingent of those people that, you know, said now's not the right time. I'm going to save up more money and come back better prepared. Maybe rates will be better. Yeah. And, you know, they may have rolled the dice and saved a half point. Maybe a point.

00;15;49;21 - 00;15;50;08

Joe Reitzug

But,

00;15;50;08 - 00;15;53;08

Joe Reitzug

I don't think there's a ton of those people out there.

00;15;53;10 - 00;15;57;07

Joe Reitzug

The psychology point, I think, speaks to consumer confidence.

00;15;57;07 - 00;16;21;11

Joe Reitzug

People will only buy a home if they have a job. You know they're going to have a job for a while and feel like their finances are situated in a way where they can afford the payment. Right. And if you're looking at your monthly bills and the price of groceries, the price of eggs seem to be a hot button right now.

00;16;21;11 - 00;16;22;11

Makayla Mast

Really hot button.

00;16;22;18 - 00;16;23;03

Joe Reitzug

I know.

00;16;23;08 - 00;16;24;28

Makayla Mast

Everyone's going to have chickens I.

00;16;24;28 - 00;16;25;29

Joe Reitzug

Want chickens.

00;16;26;00 - 00;16;26;25

Makayla Mast

I need to know.

00;16;26;25 - 00;16;27;27

Joe Reitzug

I want you to have chicken.

00;16;27;28 - 00;16;29;11

Makayla Mast

No, I want you to.

00;16;29;13 - 00;16;31;24

Joe Reitzug

Have chicken so I can buy eggs from you.

00;16;31;26 - 00;16;34;08

Makayla Mast

You. If you want to buy them from me.

00;16;34;11 - 00;16;37;06

Joe Reitzug

But because I don't want chickens at my house.

00;16;37;09 - 00;16;38;23

Makayla Mast

That would be a chaos.

00;16;38;25 - 00;16;40;19

Joe Reitzug

It would be chaos.

00;16;40;21 - 00;16;43;09

Makayla Mast

There's already enough sheepdogs around here.

00;16;43;11 - 00;16;53;25

Joe Reitzug

Oh, I got plenty of sheepdogs. Yeah. So. But I think that, you know, people look at all that, all the expenses they have, and they're like, how can I afford to,

00;16;53;25 - 00;16;58;10

Joe Reitzug

have a larger house payment or having a house payment at all? And that's a tough one. So,

00;16;58;10 - 00;16;59;04

Joe Reitzug

you know, we'll see.

00;16;59;04 - 00;17;02;17

Joe Reitzug

So what buyers and sellers should do now?

00;17;02;17 - 00;17;07;03

Joe Reitzug

I think for buyers you can always have a good opportunity.

00;17;07;21 - 00;17;09;19

Joe Reitzug

In any different situation.

00;17;09;19 - 00;17;16;23

Joe Reitzug

We talk about 2008 to 2010. How awful that was. But people are still buying homes right.

00;17;16;23 - 00;17;23;00

Joe Reitzug

and you could get a heck of a deal on something. And a lot of those people did extremely well.

00;17;23;00 - 00;17;28;00

Joe Reitzug

You know, the other thing is if you've put yourself in a position to buy,

00;17;28;00 - 00;17;33;02

Joe Reitzug

but you're worried about rates or something like that, you can buy now, refinance later.

00;17;33;06 - 00;17;38;00

Joe Reitzug

So the rent versus buy conversation I know you.

00;17;38;03 - 00;17;39;07

Makayla Mast

Know the hot topic right.

00;17;39;13 - 00;17;48;13

Joe Reitzug

That is a hot topic right now. I just don't see how the math doesn't look good for buying. Right. Renting. Holy smokes.

00;17;48;15 - 00;17;49;21

Makayla Mast

It's gotten outrageous.

00;17;49;21 - 00;17;51;02

Joe Reitzug

It's so expensive.

00;17;51;04 - 00;17;52;29

Makayla Mast

But so is a mortgage right now.

00;17;52;29 - 00;17;53;20

Joe Reitzug

So it's a mortgage.

00;17;53;22 - 00;17;54;27

Makayla Mast

So that's tough.

00;17;54;29 - 00;18;11;03

Joe Reitzug

So for buyers it's an individual choice like we always say. But don't be afraid to explore that choice. Right? Right. Because there are opportunities out there and sellers are more willing than ever to, you know, especially if it's been on the market a little while to help you out a little bit with closing costs.

00;18;11;03 - 00;18;17;13

Makayla Mast

Right. And maybe it's not your dream home right away, but you can sit on it for 5 to 7 years and,

00;18;17;13 - 00;18;25;03

Makayla Mast

sell and buy your dream home. Yeah, exactly. But like Joe said, we're never going to recommend something that's not good for you.

00;18;25;03 - 00;18;36;02

Makayla Mast

And it never hurts to just play out scenarios. So even if you want to, you know, get pre-approved and we just sit on it and we wait and we try to find something that's a perfect match.

00;18;36;05 - 00;18;36;27

Makayla Mast

We're happy to do that.

00;18;37;04 - 00;18;41;17

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. For sure. For sellers, I think pricing is everything right now.

00;18;41;17 - 00;19;00;13

Joe Reitzug

Even if you have a top 1% home meaning of all the homes in your price point, like if you have a home that's in the $700,000 price range. And compared to all the other $700,000 homes, yours is the absolute best. Well, if you put it as you know, 795 you may get some problems there.

00;19;00;13 - 00;19;04;08

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. So you just got to be smart about pricing. And then,

00;19;04;08 - 00;19;23;07

Makayla Mast

We really need to cut you off. But we really think it's a happy medium, right? Like, we want you to get the most that you possibly can for your home. That is always our wish for you. But we just have to be really realistic about the market right now. So just like buyers, we play out scenarios. We give you a low risk, high risk price before we go on the market.

00;19;23;15 - 00;19;27;28

Makayla Mast

And if that sounds good to you, then we'll go with it. And if you want to wait, that's totally fine.

00;19;28;00 - 00;19;34;06

Joe Reitzug

And it's always up to you as a seller if you want to take on more risk on sitting on the market. Great.

00;19;34;06 - 00;19;42;22

Joe Reitzug

there have been occasions where we've been wrong, where we thought, there's no way this House is ever going to sell for more than 500. And it did.

00;19;42;25 - 00;19;43;17

Makayla Mast

Two years later.

00;19;43;20 - 00;20;07;26

Joe Reitzug

Two years later, that one time that we were wrong. No I'm kidding. That sounds arrogant but I mean 99% of the time we're right on that right. Right. So it's a tough situation because everyone wants to get the highest value. But it's it's a tipping point. If you go over the edge. You can be in a real problem because then you're on the market for a while.

00;20;07;28 - 00;20;28;15

Joe Reitzug

Then you reduce your price. And then someone says you've been on the market for too long, I'm not going to give you full price, and then you're down below even where you thought you'd have it sold. And we recommend it usually. So anyways, you know, all of this kind of feeds into the final thing that we're going to talk about, which is probably why you tuned into this episode, which is

00;20;28;15 - 00;20;31;26

Joe Reitzug

is the market going to crash?

00;20;31;26 - 00;20;41;26

Joe Reitzug

Is the housing market going to crash? Mac you say absolutely not 100% right. You look so scared of what I'm going to say. Yeah, I.

00;20;41;26 - 00;20;44;18

Makayla Mast

Have to be optimistic.

00;20;44;20 - 00;20;48;05

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, of course, we always have to be optimistic.

00;20;48;07 - 00;20;59;28

Makayla Mast

But I don't know. Yeah. I don't know if it's going to crash. People are very, very divided on that right now, just like everything else. So it's kind of a wait and see thing. Yeah.

00;21;00;03 - 00;21;31;19

Joe Reitzug

And I'm trying not to give a non-answer. But here's the thing about real estate. Real estate is a very, very fragile thing, very fragile. And that's the one thing I've learned over the past 30 years, is that if you know a lot of these articles that we like, the JP Morgan, when we were talking about, they're like, yep, six somewhere between 6 and 6.5 and inventory is going to increase a little bit and the market's going to grow by 3.11 3.5%.

00;21;31;19 - 00;21;33;25

Makayla Mast

Because we live in a vacuum. Yeah.

00;21;33;29 - 00;21;51;15

Joe Reitzug

And that's all fine and dandy if if we did live in a vacuum. But we don't. And with real estate being so fragile, like many things in our lives, it can be affected by all sorts of different things. And for me, I always look at it as,

00;21;51;15 - 00;21;55;25

Joe Reitzug

interest rates are one thing, but there's also the economy.

00;21;55;27 - 00;22;07;08

Joe Reitzug

There is inflation, there's craziness. Like when we had the pandemic right. Didn't so many houses sitting in our in our own houses for six months, did we.

00;22;07;11 - 00;22;14;09

Makayla Mast

Right. I was in the part of real estate then feel really sorry for you during that time.

00;22;14;12 - 00;22;16;13

Joe Reitzug

Lot of zoom happy hours.

00;22;16;16 - 00;22;17;05

Makayla Mast

That's true.

00;22;17;08 - 00;22;23;19

Joe Reitzug

Oh, yeah. Many of you out there remember that? That was fun. Well, it's not.

00;22;23;19 - 00;22;27;27

Joe Reitzug

But I guess my point is, you never know what's going to happen.

00;22;27;27 - 00;22;30;12

Joe Reitzug

know, we just had a change in administrations,

00;22;30;12 - 00;22;31;19

Joe Reitzug

in the government.

00;22;31;19 - 00;22;39;15

Joe Reitzug

there's a lot of change going on. Markets don't like change. Housing don't like change.

00;22;39;17 - 00;23;04;24

Joe Reitzug

Makayla don't like change. So things are going to be bumpy for a while. And I think that's going to be kind of normal to say there's going to be a crash, like a 2008. I don't think so. Right. There's a lot of things in place that safety nets different things that are going on. I don't see that type of thing happening, but at the same time, I also don't see the JP Morgan,

00;23;04;24 - 00;23;07;11

Joe Reitzug

everything's in a vacuum and hunky dory.

00;23;07;11 - 00;23;09;08

Joe Reitzug

And let's go have, you know.

00;23;09;09 - 00;23;10;06

Makayla Mast

No, he's not going to.

00;23;10;06 - 00;23;13;18

Joe Reitzug

Coffee and donuts. No, no. But,

00;23;13;18 - 00;23;18;09

Joe Reitzug

I think we need to be prepared for if things do go a little bit sideways with,

00;23;18;09 - 00;23;18;26

Joe Reitzug

some

00;23;18;26 - 00;23;24;10

Joe Reitzug

what do they call it, a black swan event. Something out of nowhere. Have you ever heard of that saying?

00;23;24;13 - 00;23;27;15

Makayla Mast

No. But I really wish I could remember it for you.

00;23;27;21 - 00;24;00;16

Joe Reitzug

Yeah, it's called Black Swan Event. Yeah. And it's just something that comes out of nowhere. So the long and short, my, you know, non-answer is, do I think there's going to be a housing crash? No, not like we had in 2008, 2010. Do I think it'll be a bumpy road? Yes, I do. But with that comes opportunity for buyers and also opportunity for sellers, and also opportunity for brokers like you and I, who when people get scared and still need to do something.

00;24;00;18 - 00;24;08;02

Joe Reitzug

They are going to choose quality. They're going to choose professionalism. They're going to choose representation that,

00;24;08;02 - 00;24;11;20

Joe Reitzug

represents their best interest. Right. And so you know.

00;24;11;26 - 00;24;12;13

Makayla Mast

That's our goal.

00;24;12;15 - 00;24;22;12

Joe Reitzug

Quality brokers doing good professional work will always be in demand. So that's why I don't worry too much about any of this. Because how much of it can we control.

00;24;22;14 - 00;24;28;12

Makayla Mast

Makayla I can control if I get out of bed.

00;24;28;14 - 00;24;33;17

Joe Reitzug

You can control if you have a margarita after this. After listening to my my rant.

00;24;33;19 - 00;24;35;29

Makayla Mast

Oh, absolutely, I will be. Yeah.

00;24;36;06 - 00;24;42;27

Joe Reitzug

Yeah. But what we can't control is what's going to happen in the marketplace and what's happening with the economy and all that sort of stuff. So.

00;24;43;01 - 00;24;45;10

Makayla Mast

Right. We're just going to stay optimistic.

00;24;45;11 - 00;24;49;16

Joe Reitzug

We will stay optimistic. So anyways.

00;24;49;18 - 00;24;54;00

Makayla Mast

I hope this isn't too depressing. Hey, it shouldn't be depressing if.

00;24;54;02 - 00;25;04;15

Joe Reitzug

You know, the one thing that we tell and this is probably a good thing to share. The thing that we tell people when we sit in their homes and they're, you know, interviewing us to see if they want us to represent them.

00;25;04;23 - 00;25;06;02

Makayla Mast

Who wouldn't want us to represent?

00;25;06;02 - 00;25;34;29

Joe Reitzug

Right. Come on. And we tell them that, you know, we're going to 100% all the time. Give you the non varnish truth and give you the facts because you're making very difficult decisions about what you're going to do. Buying a home, selling a home. All of these things deeply affect you. Your finances, your family, all of that. And you need to have the right information and get opinions from people that you trust,

00;25;34;29 - 00;25;38;02

Joe Reitzug

that are accurate and, and are honest.

00;25;38;08 - 00;25;44;27

Joe Reitzug

So we will never, ever candy coat things. We'll give you the 100% facts. And I think that's what this podcast was, is. You know.

00;25;44;27 - 00;25;48;07

Makayla Mast

People are saying burnished inside truth. Sorry not to cut you off.

00;25;48;14 - 00;25;48;25

Joe Reitzug

Is that our.

00;25;48;25 - 00;25;51;02

Makayla Mast

Title? It is.

00;25;51;04 - 00;26;01;11

Joe Reitzug

I need to look at that more. Go figure. But yeah, I mean, that's that's kind of where we're coming from with this. So if anyone wants to have a conversation about it, give us a call.

00;26;01;18 - 00;26;02;07

Makayla Mast

We're here.

00;26;02;08 - 00;26;05;20

Joe Reitzug

We're here. Happy to help. And pretty busy these days.

00;26;05;23 - 00;26;08;00

Makayla Mast

We actually are pretty busy. Yeah.

00;26;08;03 - 00;26;11;23

Joe Reitzug

it's very nice. So we appreciate everyone's,

00;26;11;23 - 00;26;12;21

Joe Reitzug

trust in us. And,

00;26;12;21 - 00;26;17;11

Joe Reitzug

we hope that, you're in a good situation and, and that we can help out sometime in the future.

00;26;17;11 - 00;26;32;05

Joe Reitzug

Thanks for joining us today. If you're interested in finding out more about Joe, myself or the LivPortland team, you can go to LivPortland.com. Thanks for giving us a lesson and see you next time on the Off the Record podcast.