Government Shutdown 2025: What It Means for Portland Real Estate

🏠 The government’s shut down—so what does that mean for your home purchase or sale?

Joe and Makayla unpack the real impact of the current U.S. government shutdown on Portland’s real estate market, including loan delays, rate volatility, and buyer confidence—plus what smart buyers and sellers should do right now.

🎙️ Episode Summary

As of October 8, 2025, the federal government is officially shut down—and Portland’s housing market is already feeling the ripple effects. In this timely episode, Joe and Makayla break down what the shutdown means for mortgage rates, federal loan processing, flood insurance approvals, and buyer sentiment in the metro area.

They share expert insights on how to stay ahead: why locking your rate early, securing pre-approval fast, and staying flexible on closing timelines can protect your deal. For sellers, they discuss how to navigate shifting leverage and changing buyer behavior. The conversation wraps up with some levity—Makayla’s appreciation for Sotheby’s strong nationwide network and Joe’s unforgettable food finds in Philadelphia. 🍝

You’ll come away with practical, actionable takeaways to weather the uncertainty—and maybe a few travel tips, too.

⏱️ Episode Highlights

• [00:01:12] Topic Reveal: What a government shutdown means for the Portland real estate market
• [00:03:50] Flood insurance challenges — Why shutdowns stall policies and delay closings
• [00:04:35] Mortgage rate swings — Joe explains how volatility affects your buying power
• [00:06:27] Federal loan delays — USDA approvals may pause; FHA and VA slow down
• [00:07:12] Buyer hesitation — How uncertainty reshapes supply, demand, and leverage
• [00:09:08] Lenders tightening standards — What to expect if the shutdown drags on
• [00:10:35] Pro tips for buyers & sellers — Lock rates early, communicate, and stay flexible
• [00:14:21] What We’re Loving: Sotheby’s strong national network and Joe’s Philly food adventures

👤 About the Hosts

Joe Reitzug and Makayla Mast of LivPortland (Cascade Hasson Sotheby’s International Realty) bring insider knowledge, humor, and clarity to Oregon’s real estate market. Their candid takes help you navigate trends, opportunities, and challenges with confidence.

👉 Learn more at LivPortland.com

🧭 Resources Mentioned

• Blog: What a Government Shutdown Looks Like (Basics + Caveats)

Thank you for listening to this episode. Stay up to date on the latest trends and insights by subscribing to our podcast and following us on social media.

For more information about buying or selling in the Portland Metro real estate market, please visit www.LivPortland.com or contact us directly.

We appreciate your feedback, so please leave a review and let us know what topics you would like to hear more about.

Transcript

00:00:08:18 - 00:00:29:06
Joe Reitzug
Welcome to Off the Record talking real estate with joining me, Kayla. If you're interested in the Portland, Oregon real estate market and want the unvarnished inside scoop, you've come to the right place. Thanks for giving us a listen. Okay, welcome to the show, everyone. Thank you for joining us. We always appreciate it.

00:00:29:08 - 00:00:30:03
Makayla Mast
Yes we do.

00:00:30:05 - 00:00:31:01
Joe Reitzug
Hello, Makayla.

00:00:31:06 - 00:00:33:05
Makayla Mast
Hello. How's it going?

00:00:33:07 - 00:00:34:20
Joe Reitzug
It's going great. How about yourself?

00:00:34:22 - 00:00:39:21
Makayla Mast
I'm doing well. Thank you. We're officially in the fall season, which I can finally say I'm happy about.

00:00:39:23 - 00:00:42:13
Joe Reitzug
I know your boycott of that is over.

00:00:42:13 - 00:00:47:21
Makayla Mast
It's over. And I'm fully embracing fall. And I'm happy because it's the appropriate time for fall to begin. Yeah.

00:00:47:22 - 00:00:50:04
Joe Reitzug
So cold in the morning.

00:00:50:06 - 00:00:50:23
Makayla Mast
Yes.

00:00:50:23 - 00:00:52:07
Joe Reitzug
Rainy in the afternoon.

00:00:52:09 - 00:00:53:04
Makayla Mast
Oh, yeah.

00:00:53:06 - 00:01:12:13
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. Yeah. So we've got a great show today. We're going to be talking about what a government shutdown looks like for the Portland metro real estate market. And there's a lot there. But we're going to kind of encapsulate it and try to give you the high points on this. Just kind of talk about this a little bit because you know, this is probably not going to be timely in a month or so.

00:01:12:13 - 00:01:21:11
Joe Reitzug
But for right now this is real. So what does it mean for real estate? But before we do that, we have our segment at the top that we've been doing, which is.

00:01:21:12 - 00:01:31:02
Makayla Mast
Our off the record moment.

00:01:31:04 - 00:01:34:07
Joe Reitzug
So tell me, what is your off the record moment?

00:01:34:09 - 00:01:50:18
Makayla Mast
My off the record moment is a gripe. And that gripe is with people who are resharing articles where they don't actually read the whole thing. I know it's so common and we all kind of do it to an extent, but if you don't read the whole article, don't share it.

00:01:50:21 - 00:01:51:05
Joe Reitzug
Yeah.

00:01:51:08 - 00:02:07:14
Makayla Mast
Or don't have a position on it. Don't take the clickbait. It's getting ridiculous with specifically with this government shutdown stuff. People in our industry have been like sharing terrible information. And I'm like, as a broker, this is embarrassing. And you're spreading bad news.

00:02:07:15 - 00:02:09:10
Joe Reitzug
Yeah, I get it. I get it.

00:02:09:12 - 00:02:10:15
Makayla Mast
That's my. Great.

00:02:10:17 - 00:02:32:06
Joe Reitzug
Nice. That's a good one. I, on the other hand, and you can probably get on board with this, I don't know. Both Michael and I were out for short little vacations this last week, which involved air travel. I don't know about you, Mr. and Mrs. Listener, but it has gotten way difficult to travel. Yeah, air travel especially.

00:02:32:08 - 00:02:56:21
Joe Reitzug
And between having airlines bump you around from different flights to when you land, waiting on the tarmac for a half an hour or 45 minutes because they don't have the gate ready, all that sort of stuff. And it just seems like we've gone backwards. And that is super frustrating, especially when you're flying coast to coast, which my wife and I were, and it was just ridiculous.

00:02:56:22 - 00:02:59:00
Joe Reitzug
I was very frustrated with it.

00:02:59:02 - 00:02:59:23
Makayla Mast
I'm sorry.

00:03:00:01 - 00:03:02:15
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. So that's my gripe. Get it together.

00:03:02:16 - 00:03:04:07
Makayla Mast
That's fair. Well now that.

00:03:04:11 - 00:03:06:12
Joe Reitzug
The Asian administration.

00:03:06:14 - 00:03:12:20
Makayla Mast
Yeah you tell them now that they're not going to be paying air traffic controllers. It should only get worse.

00:03:12:20 - 00:03:15:07
Joe Reitzug
So yeah I don't think it's going to get.

00:03:15:07 - 00:03:16:14
Makayla Mast
Better for the time soon.

00:03:16:16 - 00:03:19:23
Joe Reitzug
And now we've got to shut down. So let's jump right into that.

00:03:19:23 - 00:03:21:00
Makayla Mast
Yes.

00:03:21:02 - 00:03:30:11
Joe Reitzug
You know, before we dig into Portland specific and what it means for Portland. Just a couple of high points. National Flood Insurance is one that you were going to talk about.

00:03:30:12 - 00:03:50:06
Makayla Mast
Well I just wanted to say really quick we're not going into a deep dive on what government shutdowns mean period. We're just talking about how it relates to real estate. So hopefully that's clear. But the National Flood Insurance Program is often one of the first to feel strained during government shutdowns. And that affects the real estate market in a lot of ways.

00:03:50:06 - 00:03:58:17
Makayla Mast
But obviously, people have a harder time getting flood insurance, which you need prior to closing on a property. If that property needs flood insurance.

00:03:58:17 - 00:04:07:05
Joe Reitzug
If it's in the floodplain, you're going to need it. And if you can't get it, you can't close. Yep. Which is a real bummer.

00:04:07:07 - 00:04:11:14
Makayla Mast
Big bummer. Yeah. So that's probably one of the bigger items we'll talk about.

00:04:11:14 - 00:04:35:01
Joe Reitzug
But the other one that we'll talk about is mortgage rates. And typically when the government goes into this shutdown scenario you get a lot of volatility. And volatility can go up. It can go down especially if you're getting ready to buy a house or if you are in escrow, you know, make sure you lock that puppy down at the interest rate that you want.

00:04:35:03 - 00:04:56:15
Joe Reitzug
Because if you just float it, things can move much quicker than usual when we have this type of uncertainty going on. Those are the the two big ones that we'll just throw out there off the top. But let's talk about Portland specifically. And in Portland we have a weird dynamic of yes, we have more inventory, but the buyer demand is less.

00:04:56:17 - 00:05:20:07
Joe Reitzug
And this dynamic of a shut down is going to flip that a little bit where, you know, we could see something to the effect of buyers just saying, hey, when all this craziness is going on, we're just not going to jump into the the housing market, right. And that would really, you know, could drive prices down even more in certain areas.

00:05:20:07 - 00:05:45:12
Joe Reitzug
So that housing pressure is one that we definitely want to take a look at. We talked about flood zones and insurance dependency. You've got to be able to get that insurance. So if you're looking at a property, knowing if it's in the flood zone as critically important. And if it is and you're going to make an offer, just know that it's probably going to be a little while before you can get that done, especially if they shut down last for a significant amount of time.

00:05:45:14 - 00:05:58:17
Joe Reitzug
The other one is federal employees. We don't have a huge base of federal employees in Portland, but we do have some. Yeah. And it really affects these folks. And I feel horrible. Horrible for them.

00:05:58:19 - 00:06:00:03
Makayla Mast
It's awful. Yeah.

00:06:00:03 - 00:06:04:07
Joe Reitzug
Just sorry your job's on hold, and we're not going to pay you.

00:06:04:09 - 00:06:06:08
Makayla Mast
Niranjan, if you are in escrow.

00:06:06:10 - 00:06:07:09
Joe Reitzug
Oh my gosh.

00:06:07:15 - 00:06:08:14
Makayla Mast
Bummer.

00:06:08:16 - 00:06:27:15
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. So? So those are the general items for Portland. But let's talk about the short term impacts. And you know, transaction delays are one that you know is at the top of the list. If you're in escrow, if you're buying a home right now, just be prepared that there may be stuff. Jump out of the woodwork that you're not prepared for.

00:06:27:16 - 00:06:36:05
Joe Reitzug
Right. And you just you got to have it. You got to deal with it. And both parties have to be willing to be flexible in this. Right?

00:06:36:05 - 00:06:36:21
Makayla Mast
Yeah.

00:06:36:23 - 00:06:54:15
Joe Reitzug
And that means extending closing periods. That means extending deadlines on certain contingencies, all those type of things. The other one is the federal loan processing is going to be slower. FHA, VA, USDA programs are going to be slower. And USDA in particular.

00:06:54:18 - 00:06:55:15
Makayla Mast
I'm.

00:06:55:17 - 00:06:57:10
Joe Reitzug
Probably not going to get approved.

00:06:57:11 - 00:07:12:04
Makayla Mast
Yeah, we're seeing that FHA, they should be able to keep up and VA, but specifically USDA, that is going to be very much on hold. Yeah. So we don't work with a ton of USDA loans in general. But yeah, still it's good to know.

00:07:12:06 - 00:07:22:01
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. The other one like we mentioned buyer hesitation. This type of uncertainty does not lend to confidence in people buying a home.

00:07:22:05 - 00:07:24:07
Makayla Mast
And we're already lacking consumer confidence right.

00:07:24:08 - 00:07:48:07
Joe Reitzug
You know everyone thinks that the rates have gone down. It's going to be great. Well employment and the job market is one thing. If people aren't secure in their jobs, they're just not going to buy a home no matter what the rates at. The other thing is complete uncertainty about what the government is doing and what that means to everyone is also an uncertainty that just is going to put the brakes on a lot of people's plans.

00:07:48:07 - 00:08:05:22
Joe Reitzug
So be ready for that if you're a seller. There may be a bump if certain things happen where there's less buyers. The inventory is not going to change. So those homes are still going to be on the market. People are going to pull their homes off the market just because there's a government shutdown. But buyers may choose to not get in the marketplace.

00:08:05:22 - 00:08:14:18
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. Which tweaks the supply and demand which tweaks the the leverage a little bit. So buyers may get a little bit more bold and say.

00:08:14:23 - 00:08:15:20
Makayla Mast
Hey, here's my offer.

00:08:15:20 - 00:08:23:11
Joe Reitzug
Take it, this is my offer, take it or leave it. And here's the terms and conditions and some of that may be difficult to take for sellers sometimes, don't you think?

00:08:23:12 - 00:08:24:16
Makayla Mast
Right. Absolutely.

00:08:24:18 - 00:08:46:20
Joe Reitzug
Data and appraisal delays. I don't know that there's going to be a ton of that outside of government controlled stuff. But you may see appraisals taking a little bit longer there. Just there's uncertainty with the whole transaction process. So be ready for that. It's not a huge thing. But those could be some of the things that happen.

00:08:46:22 - 00:09:08:03
Joe Reitzug
Some of the more medium to longer term risk if the shutdown drags on deal attrition canceled sales. People may just say this is going on too long. We don't like the environment that's out there right now. We're going to hold off on this. We're terminating our transaction now. Granted, that's probably within a certain contingency period. So they don't lose their earnest money.

00:09:08:03 - 00:09:15:10
Joe Reitzug
But that may happen. And we've seen more sales fail this season.

00:09:15:15 - 00:09:16:02
Makayla Mast
Yeah.

00:09:16:04 - 00:09:18:14
Joe Reitzug
Than ever before. Not ever before.

00:09:18:14 - 00:09:22:20
Makayla Mast
But in my career.

00:09:22:22 - 00:09:26:09
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. Yeah. So it's been a long, long time.

00:09:26:11 - 00:09:49:15
Makayla Mast
The other thing is that, if lenders get worried, you know, in the shutdown lasts a long time, they might respond to this with increased uncertainty and it might make it harder to get approved. So they might tighten their standards for underwriting. This means that buyers might have to show more reserves in their bank accounts, and they might only accept more conservative debt to income ratios.

00:09:49:17 - 00:09:51:09
Joe Reitzug
Yeah, and that would have to be.

00:09:51:13 - 00:09:52:10
Makayla Mast
That'd be a long time if.

00:09:52:10 - 00:10:02:19
Joe Reitzug
The shutdown was going for quite a while. Yeah, that would be something. And but if that's the scenario, the other thing that you might see is some foreclosure and distress sales. Yeah. Hit the market.

00:10:02:19 - 00:10:03:05
Makayla Mast
Yes.

00:10:03:10 - 00:10:12:00
Joe Reitzug
We haven't seen a big bump in that for the most part, especially in Portland metro. But that could be out there if this thing last too long.

00:10:12:00 - 00:10:13:20
Makayla Mast
So people who are on the verge. Yeah.

00:10:13:22 - 00:10:35:07
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. So let's talk about our takeaways. For buyers, if your transaction involves flood zones, a USDA loan especially. But also FHA, VA, expect delays, expect things to take longer to get through, you know, build in that extra buffer time because it's that's going to be part of the process.

00:10:35:09 - 00:10:47:10
Makayla Mast
No longer closing isn't the end of the world. We see them all the time. Yeah. Gives you more time to work through your contingencies. But yeah, I mean, we also know how eager people are to get into their home. So it's just kind of a let down.

00:10:47:12 - 00:11:13:15
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. And like we always say on the show, do things well in advance. It gives you more leeway, ability to to pivot but secure your pre-approval as quickly as possible. Lock in rates sooner than later, you know, and stay in close contact with your lender and your real estate professional because things will change faster during this time period, and you just have to be able to to move quickly.

00:11:13:15 - 00:11:36:08
Joe Reitzug
And that means staying in good communication for sellers. Be aware that buyers might get even more aggressive with their offers and their their terms and conditions. You know, if your timeline is flexible, communicate that upfront because that could be to your advantage, right? There are going to be some buyers whose loans are going to take a little bit longer.

00:11:36:10 - 00:11:49:08
Joe Reitzug
There's going to be some things that have to get moved through the pipeline for a lender a little bit longer and, you know, coming out and saying, hey, we're flexible, we're going to work with you could work to your advantage, don't you think?

00:11:49:08 - 00:11:52:02
Makayla Mast
Yes. Yeah. I'm slowly that's a really good point.

00:11:52:04 - 00:11:54:12
Joe Reitzug
So let's look at the outlook. Right.

00:11:54:12 - 00:11:55:17
Makayla Mast
So for the.

00:11:55:17 - 00:12:01:12
Joe Reitzug
Short term you know the optimistic is shut down ends in a few days or a week.

00:12:01:14 - 00:12:03:18
Makayla Mast
This is irrelevant by the time Wednesday.

00:12:03:20 - 00:12:27:00
Joe Reitzug
I know this time this podcast comes out hopefully that's the case. But I got a sneaking suspicion that's not going to be the case. So but optimistically, if it does, you know that's great. Transactions will remove or resume without a whole lot of damage. Some closings may be delayed, but for the most part, the market will bounce back pretty quickly.

00:12:27:00 - 00:12:53:14
Joe Reitzug
What we've seen in the past is if it goes over a week or two, you know, funding gaps stretch into a month or more. We could see a noticeable dip in prices and weaker, segments. You know, things could get pretty crazy. There could be some more, foreclosures. It's just a prolonged recovery after this would if it goes for more than a couple of weeks, it's going to take time for the markets and everything to get back in shape.

00:12:53:14 - 00:13:16:07
Joe Reitzug
Right. So just be ready for that. You know? And in general, when in doubt, reach out to your lender, your mortgage professional or your real estate professional and ask them, you know, what they think about this. And anyone that says that there's not going to be some impact, it's probably not paying attention because there are things that will take effect that could affect you.

00:13:16:09 - 00:13:34:14
Joe Reitzug
And everyone's different. You know, each individual buyer or each individual seller has a different scenario and different circumstances, and you just need to have that conversation to know, okay, I didn't know this could affect me. Well, yeah. If you're looking at buying a home along the river.

00:13:34:16 - 00:13:36:06
Makayla Mast
It might not be a good time.

00:13:36:08 - 00:13:46:04
Joe Reitzug
Might take a little bit longer than three. Yeah. Right. And if you're a buyer maybe you can leverage that. If you're a seller, just be prepared that that might be part of the conversation right now.

00:13:46:06 - 00:13:51:18
Makayla Mast
If you're going a conventional loan no flood zone you should be in. Yeah.

00:13:51:20 - 00:13:57:01
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. Have at it. So that is, our government shutdown update.

00:13:57:01 - 00:13:58:12
Makayla Mast
Short and sweet, I love it.

00:13:58:12 - 00:14:01:14
Joe Reitzug
Short and sweet. We got to keep it short because this thing could be over in a moment.

00:14:01:14 - 00:14:03:10
Makayla Mast
Yes. Fingers crossed.

00:14:03:10 - 00:14:07:10
Joe Reitzug
Like I said, I don't think so. It could be wrong, but I don't think so.

00:14:07:12 - 00:14:12:22
Makayla Mast
Well, we'll check back in. Yeah, we'll keep you posted in case you don't get enough information about it online.

00:14:13:00 - 00:14:13:08
Joe Reitzug
Yeah.

00:14:13:10 - 00:14:16:00
Makayla Mast
So should we wrap up with what we're loving?

00:14:16:04 - 00:14:21:11
Joe Reitzug
Yeah. Let's wrap up with what we're loving. I want you to go first because I'm still pondering what my 11.

00:14:21:12 - 00:14:30:14
Makayla Mast
Days here, I. It's going to sound cheesy. Don't hate me. I really love server biz International Realty.

00:14:30:16 - 00:14:32:15
Joe Reitzug
That does sound cheesy.

00:14:32:17 - 00:14:55:16
Makayla Mast
I say it we this was we were just in New York and we walked into the Sotheby's office in Manhattan. And it's something that we do everywhere we travel and it's just a different experience. And so good to know that we're this well connected throughout the country and the globe. And that's not the case for most other brokerages, even within the state of Oregon.

00:14:55:16 - 00:15:10:23
Makayla Mast
So we drive to Cannon Beach and we possibly one of our offices there. We know everybody at the front desk. We can communicate a lot quicker. There's a certain level of professionalism and understanding that takes place, and it's just really refreshing. So yeah.

00:15:11:01 - 00:15:19:12
Joe Reitzug
It is funny. We were on the East Coast at the same time. It was so funny. I know Stephanie and I were probably, what, ten miles away from each other?

00:15:19:12 - 00:15:23:03
Makayla Mast
Yes. From you and Stephanie are ten miles away from Jacob or not?

00:15:23:04 - 00:15:42:20
Joe Reitzug
Yes, yes. And unfortunately, we weren't able to connect. But, it really does make you realize the power of the network and everything that's out there, because we were in Philadelphia and went out to see the Oregon Penn State game and the number of Sothebys signs was incredible. But that's not my piece.

00:15:42:20 - 00:15:44:22
Makayla Mast
That I'm okay. Why are you loving what's here?

00:15:44:22 - 00:15:52:12
Joe Reitzug
I changed it, I told you something earlier. I'm changing it completely because you know what I love? What I know I love eating on vacation.

00:15:52:12 - 00:15:53:10
Makayla Mast
Oh, okay.

00:15:53:12 - 00:16:07:06
Joe Reitzug
There is nothing better in Philadelphia. And I didn't know this, I. I'd never been before, but holy smokes, the Italian food in Philadelphia is off the charts. If you ever go to Philly. Dante and Luigi's.

00:16:07:10 - 00:16:08:19
Makayla Mast
There. Just instantly I feel great.

00:16:08:21 - 00:16:33:02
Joe Reitzug
Oh my gosh, I hadn't osso bucco. That was the largest the most tender, the most flavorful, the most incredible thing I've eaten at an Italian restaurant in Forever Young. And The Leftovers the next day were even better. Oh yes, with a with a risotto. I can hear my stomach right now, folks. That's you people.

00:16:33:02 - 00:16:36:05
Makayla Mast
Go on vacation to do anything. But he.

00:16:36:07 - 00:16:38:17
Joe Reitzug
Do they? I don't know, I don't know.

00:16:38:19 - 00:16:39:22
Makayla Mast
I love tomatoes.

00:16:40:03 - 00:17:02:03
Joe Reitzug
And the Philly cheesesteaks, which they call hoagies. Angelo's in Philadelphia has the best cheesesteaks. Oh, hoagies. Unbelievable. So, that's what I'm loving right now. What I'm not loving is probably the 5 or 6 pounds that I gained. And in six days it was unbelievably rich and wonderful. But that's the way it goes. McHale. Yeah.

00:17:02:03 - 00:17:05:09
Makayla Mast
So you're in it back on the peloton. It's fine. You'll be fine by this week.

00:17:05:09 - 00:17:07:07
Joe Reitzug
On it, back on it.

00:17:07:09 - 00:17:08:09
Makayla Mast
Okay.

00:17:08:11 - 00:17:14:15
Joe Reitzug
All right, folks, well, that's the show for today. Thanks so much for joining us. And, we look forward to chatting with you again.

00:17:14:15 - 00:17:15:09
Makayla Mast
Yes.

00:17:15:09 - 00:17:16:00
Joe Reitzug
Bye, Makayla.

00:17:16:00 - 00:17:31:20
Makayla Mast
Bye.

00:17:31:22 - 00:17:44:21
Makayla Mast
Thanks for joining us today. If you're interested in finding out more about Joe, myself or the LivPortland team, you can go to LivPortland.com. Thanks for giving us a listen and see you next time on the Off the Record podcast.